Russian mercenaries in Venezuela

(Russian mercenaries of the Slavonic Corps, in Syria.)

          Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group, who have acted in Syria and Ukraine, arrived to Caracas aiming of securing the safety of Nicolás Maduro and other senior Venezuela's authorities. The report in English was initially disclosed, on January 25th, by Reuters Agency, but a survey by the Jametown Foundation showed that, indeed, the mercenaries were sent from Moscow, passing through Dakar (Senegal), Ciudad del Leste (Paraguay) and Havana (Cuba), before arriving to the Venezuelan capital by a comercial flight on 22nd. The semmingly erratic trip's trajectory raises the hypothesis that it was planned for not raising suspicions.

          According to Jamestown, Russian mercenaries arrived in Venezuela as early as May 2018, before the current political crisis, which bean in January with Maduro's inauguration for a new term as president. The new group of combatants was, therefore, added to those already in the country. There would be up to 400 new mercenaries.

          Two days after the news on Reuters, several media outlets reported that Moscow denied sending these mercenaries. Jamestown comments, however, that in general the Russian authorities' reaction have been denial or silence on the matter. On January 23rd, the Kremlin's spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, admitted that Russian private security companies operated in Sudan and came into contradiction with the Russian ambassador in the country, who in November 2018 had denied the fact. This lapse may be an indication that Russia seeks to keep silence on mercenaries hired by the government on behalf of state interests. There are Russian private companies also operating in Gabon and Central African Republic, as Coda agency has learned in detail.

          As I commented in the last post, Russia has much to lose with the fall of Maduro´s government, which is increasingly isolated internationally, but has explicit support, in addition to the Russians, China and Turkey. The government's fall would be the loss of contracts for large Russian companies, money for non-payment of loans (which Maduro have had difficulties to pay) and especially a space of political and military influence in a region close to the US. A geopolitical adversary besides Washington means the Moscow's triumph in its commitment for the corrosion of the US global leadership. Hence the dispute between of the two countries around Venezuelan crisis.

          So far, Moscow has given no indication that will send military personnel to Venezuela on the possibillity, even small, of a Washington's military intervention. While accusing the US of promoting, with its allies, a coup d'etat in Venezuela and a potential bloodshed, Russia seeks to antecipate itself to a social convulsion or even a foreign intervation using paid percenaries. At least for now.

* Published in Portuguese on January 30th, 2019.