domingo, 30 de dezembro de 2018

Belarus: ally of Russia, but not so much

(Putin of Rússia, Lukashenka of Belarus, and Poroshenko of Ukraine.)

          In recent years, Belarus has shown signal of ditachment from Russia, mainly since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, not recognized by the Minsk government, at the same time as it has sought a rapproachement to the West. The official position is to search for a more independent foreign policy, not so much tied to Moscow.

          On 27th December, an economist from Belarus State University warned of possibility of the Weatern countries creating a movement against Moscow and install a pro-Western government in Minsk. These countries would be politically and financially promoting people comitted to this agenda. This narrative is common among members and supporters of the Russian government, who seek, some times in a deribelately exaggerated way, for a "fifth column" in their territory. The background of the argument, as expected, the wave of protests that in February of 2014 toppled president Yanukovich, in Ukraine, and gave way to the rise of the Pietro Poroshenko´s pro-Western government.

          In another episode on last 24th, the country´s president, Alexander Lukashenka, said he would refer to Russia not as a "fraternal state", but only as a "partner", which in the Russian political language is a much more vague term of varied interpretation. According to him, its like the Russians see his country. Although its only rhetorical, the words coming from a leader in power since 1994 indicate a Minsk´s tendency to distance himself from Moscow. Lukashenka has accumulating a number of pronouncements in this sense. 
       
          Russia, however, regards Belarus a key neighbor, given the possibility of expanding it´s political and military action to the Europe´s borders, as it was exemplified by the Zapad, a major military training conducted in September 2007 just in Western Belarus, near the border with Poland. At that time, up to 100 thousand soldiers of both countries were deployed. Despite this sort of cooperation, the Lukashenka government resists the idea of permanent presence of foreign troops in its territory, also referring to Russia, which plans a military base in the neighboring territory.

          Despite Belarus being culturally very similar to Russia and dependent on its commercial products, especially natural gas, in recent years Lukasehnka has shown not so faithful to his most powerful partner. Its a few safe position for a small country that has by its side a giant that militarily occupies three of its neighboring countries.                    

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